Coronavirus (Covid-19) Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the travel and tourism sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Economists and institutions have cut their forecasts and experts are predicting the potential onset of recessionary environments.

According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), more than one in six young people worldwide have stopped working since the COVID-19 outbreak (May 29).

$8.5tn

Global economic output will fall by $8.5 tn over next two years, according to the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects report (May 13).

69%

According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, 856,500 people claimed unemployment benefits in April, up 69% in a single month (May 20).

Impact of Covid-19 on asset prices

- SECTOR IMPACT: TRAVEL AND TOURISM -

As of 26 June 2020

airline losses in 2020

$84.3bn

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has estimated that the airlines could lose $84.3bn this year. IATA also expects the revenues to drop by 50% to $419bn in 2020 compared with $838bn last year.

international travel cancellations

57%

GlobalData’s latest survey found that 57% of global travelers have had to cancel or change upcoming international travel plans – 44% however remain extremely concerned about the global outbreak of COVID-19

impact on transport infrastructure

$19.4bn

GlobalData predicts that global construction output will contract by 1.4% in 2020. Governments and public authorities will advance spending on infrastructure projects as soon as normality returns to reinvigorate the industry.

Cruise industry developments

The Government of the Maldives is allowing cruise ships to call again in August. Cruise ships and yachts arriving in the Maldives are mainly exempt from the new general tourism guidelines and must adhere to International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations and guidelines. Cruise ships and yachts will not be allowed to embark or disembark passengers on or off inhabited islands until 1 August 2020.

Three Royal Caribbean Group brands have confirmed an extension to their suspension of cruises until 15 September. The company’s Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Azamara lines have pushed back their restart to the proposed date announced by Cruise Lines International Association last week.

The Norwegian Government has officially announced that it will allow “Hurtigruten and other cruise” lines to carry foreign passengers along the coast of Norway. Ships are not allowed to make port calls or land passengers or crew. However, they will be able to offer activities in Norwegian waters, such as kayaking, using the ships’ equipment.

American Cruise Lines is now aiming to be the first cruise operator back on U.S. waterways with its 12 July departure on the lower Mississippi River, sailing between Memphis and New Orleans on the new American Harmony. The brand is also planning to kick start its Alaska season on 23 July with the American Constellation, and offer New England cruises starting on 22 July aboard the American Constitution.